Cicero Associates & Consultants Private Limited is a polling, survey and research firm that endeavors to be an instrument to collect, record and communicate public opinions on a range of issues through surveys. Our team combines unique skill sets in designing a well-crafted and organized questionnaire, selecting a random sample that is an accurate representation of the whole population, and analyzing the findings through a modular and efficient data design structure. Our robust methodology, with an optimal use of technology for data collection and analysis, is designed to comprehensively reflect a plethora of responses.

Our Journey...

Cicero Associates & Consultants Private Limited is an independent polling, survey, and research firm that began its journey in 2011 with a vision to provide consultation services based on empirical data. Over the years, we have built a broad-based clientele ranging from members of the political fraternity and media houses, to agencies and universities in North America and Europe, conducting research in India. We have diversified our intervention in social research through action research projects in key social sectors that include Sustainability, Corporate Social Responsibility, Stake-holders’ Survey and Analysis, Land Acquisition Management, Resettlement & Rehabilitation, Need Assessment Surveys, Social Impact Assessments, Social Audit, Monitoring and Evaluation Studies and Training and Capacity Building.

We follow high ethical standards in conducting surveys and research projects on public opinion, in accordance with the WAPOR (World Association for Public Opinion Research) and ESOMAR Code of Ethics. We ensure informed consent of the respondents and observe various precautions to maintain respondent confidentiality and privacy. 

We share with our clients a full description of the method employed with relevant standard disclosures regarding methodology while according top priority to data security.

  • Vedanta-Cicero, Jharsuguda Perception Study
  • CSES-Cicero India Post Poll
  • NDTV-Cicero All India Post Poll
  • Gwalior Parliamentary Constituency Barometer (Waves I-III)
  • Guna Parliamentary Constituency Barometer (Waves I-IV)
  • Fatehgarh Sahib Parliamentary Constituency Barometer  
  • Haryana Election Barometer
  • Uttar Pradesh Constituency Barometer (22 Parliamentary Constituencies)
  • Chandni Chowk Parliamentary Constituency Barometer 
  • New Delhi Parliamentary Constituency Barometer 
  • Bihar Health Study (Round II)
  • Jind By-election Rolling Cross Section Daily Tracker Poll
  • Bihar Health Study (Round I)

  • Madhya Pradesh Constituency Barometer (51 Assembly Constituencies)

  • Chomu Assembly Constituency Barometer 

  • MNREGA Worker’s Survey

  • Gandhinagar Assembly Constituency Barometer 

  • Punjab Municipal Elections Post Poll Survey

  • Study of Voting on Gender Issues (Survey experiment in Uttar Pradesh and Punjab)

  • Survey of Sarpanchs in Palwal, Haryana

  • Bhilai Naga Assembly Constituency Barometer

  • Patronage and Ethnicity Survey Experiment

  • Delhi MCD Snap Poll

  • Uttar Pradesh Post Poll

  • ABP-Cicero Uttar Pradesh Snap Poll (Waves I, II)

  • Political attitudes on Skin Color Experiment Survey

  • Tamil Nadu Assembly Post Poll

  • Uttar Pradesh Assembly Constituency Barometer (60 Assembly Constituencies) 

  • Badaun SWOT Poll

  • Hardoi Assembly Constituency Barometer 

  • Sadar Bazar Assembly Constituency Barometer

  • India Today-Cicero Bihar Pre Poll (Waves I and II)

  • India Today-Cicero Bihar Exit Poll

  • India Today-Cicero Bihar Post Poll

  • India Today-Cicero – Mood of the Nation; Rounds 1 and 2

  • India Today-Cicero Nationwide Snap poll

  • India Today-Cicero; Delhi pre-poll; Rounds 1, 2 and 3

  • India Today-Cicero Delhi Snap Poll

  • India Today-Cicero Delhi Exit Poll

  • UP  SWOT Poll

  • Chattarpur Assembly Constituency Barometer
  • Delhi Issues Study
  • Gurgaon Parliament Constituency Barometer (Waves I and II)
  • India Today-Cicero-Battle Ground State Andhra Pradesh Pre Poll
  • India Today-Cicero-Battle Ground State Bihar Pre Poll
  • India Today-Cicero-Battle Ground State Delhi Pre Poll
  • India Today-Cicero-Battle Ground State Maharashtra Pre Poll
  • India Today-Cicero-Battle Ground State Tamil Nadu Pre Poll
  • India Today-Cicero-Battle Ground State Uttar Pradesh Pre Poll
  • India Today-Cicero-Battle Ground State West Bengal Pre Poll
  • India Today-Cicero Varanasi Poll
  • India Today-Cicero All India Post Poll
  • India Today-Cicero Exit Poll
  • Haryana Constituency Barometer (All 90 Assembly Constituencies). 
  • Haryana SWOT Poll
  • India Today-Cicero Maharashtra Pre Poll
  • India Today-Cicero – Maharashtra Exit Poll
  • Mainpuri Parliament Constituency Barometer
  • India Today-Cicero Jharkhand Exit Poll
  • India Today-Cicero Jharkhand Post Poll
  • Delhi SWOT Poll (Waves I – V)

  • Delhi Post-Poll

  • NDTV-Cicero Delhi Post-Poll (No response study)

  • Political Attitudes on Skin Colour Survey Experiment


Our Benchmarks

We, at Cicero, give our best to each project. Among these, through our journey, certain projects have emerged as milestones that mark our accomplishments across an array of criteria. These projects stand out in terms of accuracy of results, extensive scale, and use of innovative methods. While survey analysis is our stronghold, our competence extends to Focused Group Discussions and in-depth interviews of Key Informants. Our milestones cover a broad range of skills from SWOT analysis to Policy Studies, to Controlled Survey Experiments.

Cognizant of the significance of behavioral approach in measuring and assessing impact on societal issues, Cicero comprehends the use of RCT (Randomized Control Trial) in facilitating comparison between the intervention groups and the control group. With a capacity to conduct base-line studies combined with the experience of conducting several successful RCT experiments, Cicero is well-positioned to accurately measure public opinion and assess the long-term effects on attitudes and behavior.

Cicero conducted state and constituency level surveys for Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) that covered around 70,000 cross-section interviews in Delhi. The survey was used by the AAP for strategic inputs for its maiden election, in which it successfully won 28 out of 70 seats. We have conducted similar SWOT polls for other political parties in other states of India as well .

The Bihar Health Study was an extensive study of health care delivery systems in the state of Bihar conducted for the University of Georgetown, funded by the World Bank and the Gates Foundation. Over 8,000 citizens were interviewed across 64 Panchayats, spread across 16 districts.  Another 2,000 respondents were interviewed as part of targeted interviews. These included politicians from the local gram panchayat level to c MLAs and MPs, members of the administration from BDO to District Magistrate, and the health care set-up from local ANM, ASHA and Anganwadi workers to civil surgeons and nurses.

A survey experiment was conducted for the Department of Political Science, University of California, Berkeley, that quantified the impact of a leader’s skin color on his electoral popularity. We have also conducted academic surveys including survey experiments for George Washington University, King’s College, London and Duke University amongst other academic institutions.

As part of the series, Cicero conducted a national cross section pre-poll, a post poll and an exit poll for all the publications and channels of the India Today Group (ITG). Thereafter, Cicero has conducted a series of national cross-section opinion polls called ‘Mood of the Nation’ for ITG, along with many Tracker Polls for state elections. We have also conducted opinion polls and snap polls for other media groups.

Cicero conducted an extensive Exit Poll and Post Poll for NDTV after all the 7 phases of voting for the Lok Sabha 2019 elections.  A cross-section of more than 2,60,000 respondents were interviewed across 3,066 locations, spread over 508 Parliamentary Constituencies in 19 states of India.  This was one of the biggest cross-section surveys conducted in India. 

 

 


Our Services

Created by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

Election Studies

Created by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

Public Opinion Polling

Created by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

SWOT Analysis

Created by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

Concept Testing

Created by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

Perception Analysis

Created by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

Baseline Survey Analysis

Created by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

Advertising Effectiveness

Created by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

Need and Impact Assessment


Our Methodology

In multi-stage systematic stratified random sampling method, respondents are sampled from latest electoral rolls or any other sample universe and the surveys are executed through multi-stage sampling techniques. Selection of sampling techniques are made on the basis of their controls on the sample distribution they cover geographically, making sure it is spread over the spatial dimension similar to the target population.
With Systematic Random Sampling, we take a list of every member of the sample frame. From the list, we randomly select the first sample element i.e. our first respondent number from the list. Thereafter, we select every kth element on the list with a constant application of the interval.
With cluster sampling, the sample frame is divided into separate groups or clusters. In electoral surveys, every polling station that has the same polling booth is assigned to one, and only one group or cluster. A sample of clusters is chosen, using a probability method.

The questionnaire is designed as a Pre-coded Standard Structured Interview Schedule. By and large, we mainly focus on four points while designing a questionnaire: content, phrasing, format used to collect responses with the appropriate use of logic flows, and use of precise, lucid language. There is optimal use of technology through Search and Navigation buttons. For electoral surveys, a dummy EVM is used for a mock voting drill, wherever possible using the names of nominated candidates against the party symbols to authenticate the experience.
Care is taken in designing the questions so that each respondent receives the same stimuli. Standard definitions and explanations for each question is decided after thorough discussions keeping in consideration the objectives of the survey. This also helps field investigators in handling clarifications about questions.

Extensive training sessions are conducted for field investigators through workshops and mock sessions that include face-to-face interaction in administering the questionnaire and handling different kinds of respondents. After the training, data is collected through CAPI (Computer Assisted Personal Interviews) with GPS-enabled tablets that facilitate logic checks, skip patterns and validations during the interview. GPS coordinates of investigators and geo-tagging of respondents, that record each interview’s start time, end time and geographic location, work as a reliable tool to monitor the survey process, and go a long way in ensuring accuracy as well as precision of data collection.

The authenticity of the survey findings is bolstered by live-time data updates. The in-house checking team at Cicero ensures that places where substitution of respondents has taken place, a strict criterion of adhering to a similar geographic, social and demographic profile, has been followed.

Data is cleaned to remove interviews of respondents who do not meet the target criteria, who are speeders (time taken to complete a questionnaire that is tracked through GPS of the investigator), and set responses.

Our  dedicated team of experts with vast experience drawn from various fields help us to process and analyze the data using SPSS (Statistical Software for Social Sciences). The findings are presented in tabular as well as graphical forms. The results are documented in a report, annotated by descriptive statistics and commentary, which is submitted to the client.

Apart from sample survey methods, Cicero also employs Observational approach as a Descriptive Study that helps to complement the findings of the survey. We are also one of the earliest organizations in India to harness the potential of Controlled Survey Experiments through Randomized Control Trials (RCTs). RCTs are quantitative, comparative and controlled survey studies in which investigators study two or more interventions in a series of individual respondents. Through Focused Group Discussions, we arrive at meanings that add to the survey findings by focussing on the ‘why’ and ‘how’ aspects of an issue. In-depth information is gleaned through interviews of Key Informants that include stakeholders at different levels. Our expertise in a plethora of methods enables us to customize our approach depending on the requirements of the project and the specifications of the client. This, in turn, ensures high quality of research and greater accuracy in findings.


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Articles

Seminar - August 10, 2016 - Dhananjai Joshi, Sam S Solomon

The business of polling
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If representativeness is the key focus of an election poll, then compared to CATI, PAPI or CAPI seem to be more reliable ways of data collection. However, in terms of cost, the difference is huge. Although refusal rates are higher in CATI, costs towards field operations are none. The compromise on methodology also extends to the absence of a dummy ballot. But there are benefits that go beyond mere costs. All interviews are authentic and recorded. There is no fudging of data at the investigator level, which is a problem with contractual manpower. The firm is spared the sheer pain of large-scale logistics management, which in itself is a big relief. The infrastructure costs are high, but the same call centre seats can be leased out when there is no business and used in night shifts for conducting polls in other parts of the world. These benefits along with the bonus of cost efficiency make CATI an attractive method, but the overall compromise for election surveys is something to beware of. For now, CAPI with GPS tagging of locations and respondents seems to be the most suited method of data collection when it comes to election polls in India.

Polling One Billion - October 16, 2015 - Interview by Sam S Solomon

Dhananjai Joshi on the challenges of polling in India
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Dhananjai Joshi, Managing Director of Cicero Associates and Consultants, has over eleven years of experience conducting large-scale sample surveys. He received his training in Research Methods at the Survey Research Center, Institute of Social Research; University of Michigan, USA and the Afrobarometer School at the University of Cape Town, South Africa. From 2003-2009, he worked at the Centre for Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) with Professor Yogendra Yadav and accredits most of his unique learning to this association. Dhananjai has been published in the Economic and Political Weekly, The Hindu, Hindustan Times, The Indian Express and India Today besides his chapters in books published by SAGE and Oxford University Press. He has been a political commentator on TV channels such as Lok Sabha TV, Sahara Samay, Focus TV, News X and Headlines Today.

India Today - June 1, 2015 - Kaushik Deka

Modi government's one year: India Today Group-Cicero snap poll rated Centre's performance as good
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The results are out, and a majority feels that the Modi government's showing has been good but achche din are yet to arrive.

India Today - Aoril 2, 2015

India Today-Cicero Mood of the Nation Opinion Poll: End of honeymoon for Modi, still the best PM
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The poll has found that 22 per cent of the respondents consider PM Modi's performance as excellent while 38 per cent of them rated his performance as good.

India Today - February 10, 2015 - Rahul Kanwal

Arvind Kejriwal popular among upper middle-class voters
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The Cicero Exit Poll conducted on February 7 at 210 locations among 7,668 voters shows that the AAP was more popular not just among the working class and the lower middle class, but also among the relatively more affluent middle-class voters.

India Today - February 14, 2015 - Mail Today Bureau

India Today-Cicero Mood of the Nation Poll: 300 days after storming into Delhi durbar, PM Modi's popularity has slid due to ghar wapsi
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The findings of the opinion poll should come as a wake-up call for the Union government as people might be overall satisfied with its performance on the counts of governance, economy and foreign affairs but the communal tag is pulling its image down.

DailyO - Feb 11, 2015 - Dhananjai Joshi

How we got the Delhi polls all wrong
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The AAP’s historic victory was underestimated by all exit polls and even those who caught the lead missed the extent of the wave. It wasn’t only poor fieldwork quality or sampling errors of an exit poll; something went wrong beyond the usual. With a 21 percentage point lead, simple swing models would give the AAP about 65 seats. So what went wrong?

DailyO - Feb 5, 2015 - Rahul Kanwal

Delhi polls: What's changed for Kejriwal
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...Almost half the Muslim respondents (49 per cent) in the Cicero opinion poll said that they would vote for the AAP...

India Today - June 2, 2014 - Pradeep Chhibbar, Dhananjai Joshi

India voted for Modi for development, claims report
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BJP gained at least 3 per cent extra vote share and 50-60 seats because people chose politics of action over politics of inclusion.

India Today - May 19, 2014 - Dhananjai Joshi

Temple town wants a PM
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The India Today Group-Cicero Varanasi exclusive opinion poll not only throws light on how the constituency will vote on May 12 but also analyses the ground sentiment that will shape the nature of the most watched electoral battle of 2014.

India Today - May 12, 2014

India Today Group-Cicero post-poll result: Modi set to be India's next PM
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The post-poll survey by Cicero for the India Today Group, showed the NDA hitting between 261 and 283 seats, that is 272 plus/minus 11. A majority of 272 is needed to form a government, although that is often achieved with outside support from regional parties.

The Sunday Guardian - March 15, 2014

64% in UP, 54% in Delhi want Modi as PM
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According to a snap poll conducted by The Sunday Guardian-Cicero in five states, Modi maintains a comfortable lead over his rivals.

The Indian Express - Aug 26, 2009 - Dhananjai Joshi

Advantage Hooda
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Dissolving the legislature and calling for fresh elections is always a calculated risk for a ruling party. In Haryana, Bhupinder Singh Hooda has done so...

The Indian Express - May 28, 2009 - Dhananjai Joshi

A full hand
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How will the Congress revival rework UP’s political equations?

Economic & Political Weekly - Feb 7, 2009 - Dhananjai Joshi, Praveen Rai

Chhattisgarh 2008: Defeating Anti-Incumbency
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The Bharatiya Janata Party's triumph in the Chhattisgarh assembly election had a lot to do with the way in which the public perceived the gains of the Raman Singh government's social sector spending. The opposition Congress embarked on its campaign with the plank of antiincumbency but forgot to factor in that there is a perceptible link between voter choice and satisfaction with performance.

The Indian Express - April 26, 2008 - Dhananjai Joshi

The political price to pay
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As prices rise, the question is: How will inflation play out in elections? Who will bear the brunt?

The Indian Express - April 18, 2008 - Dhananjai Joshi

A new umbrella over UP?
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Is the BSP becoming a ‘catch-all’ party? And is the decline of the national parties complete? Here’s what the data says

The Indian Express - March 8, 2008 - Dhananjai Joshi

Story of red
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With a tally of 49 seats in an assembly of 60, the ruling Left Front has matched its best performance in the state in the last three decades.

The Indian Express - Feb 27, 2008 - Dhananjai Joshi

Going, going, Musharraf?
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With a new government about to be formed in Islamabad, political commentators around the world are busy speculating..

The Indian Express - Feb 18, 2008 - Dhananjai Joshi

Threat perceptions
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The controversy stirred by Raj Thackeray’s comments on ‘outsiders’ raises the question: Do the people of Maharashtra buy the argument that migrants take away the employment opportunities of the Marathi...

Economic & Political Weekly - Dec 18, 2004 - Dhananjai Joshi, Praveen Rai

Haryana : Landslide Victory for Congress
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In the jat-dominated politics of the state, the Congress benefited from the negative image of the chief minister and his family. The outcome of the Lok Sabha elections in Haryana proves that a good development record alone does not ensure that a party will perform well in an election, if it denies the people their democratic rights.

Economic & Political Weekly - Feb 7, 2004 - Abhay Datar, Dhananjai Joshi, Sanjay Kumar

Assembly Elections in Delhi
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The recent Delhi assembly elections witnessed several close campaigns between the two major parties, Congress and BJP. While votes were cast in terms of caste, community and age preferences, the Congress won because of the development-oriented administration of the incumbent Dixit government.

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